{"id":21176,"date":"2026-08-25T11:20:57","date_gmt":"2026-08-25T02:20:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tomorrowaccess.com\/?page_id=21176"},"modified":"2026-10-27T14:18:28","modified_gmt":"2026-10-27T05:18:28","slug":"weekly-2026-08-24","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/tomorrowaccess.com\/en\/s-1-journal\/weekly-2026-08-24","title":{"rendered":"A prospectus said the budget ran &#8220;through August 2026.&#8221; In August 2026, that sentence changed."},"content":{"rendered":"<style>html,body{max-width:100vw !important;overflow-x:hidden !important;}main,main>.entry-content,main>.wp-block-post-content,main>.wp-block-post-content.is-layout-constrained,main>.wp-block-post-content.is-layout-constrained>*,main .wp-block-group,main .wp-block-post-content{max-width:100% !important;padding-left:0 !important;padding-right:0 !important;margin-left:0 !important;margin-right:0 !important;}main#wp--skip-link--target{padding:0 !important;margin-top:0 !important;max-width:100% !important;}@media (max-width:720px){h1,h2,h3,p,li,td,th,div,a{word-break:normal !important;line-break:auto !important;overflow-wrap:anywhere !important;}}main .wp-block-post-content>.alignfull{margin-left:calc(-1*var(--wp--style--root--padding-left,20px)) !important;margin-right:calc(-1*var(--wp--style--root--padding-right,20px)) !important;max-width:none !important;width:auto !important;}<\/style>\n<div class=\"alignfull\" style=\"background:#fafafa;\">\n<div style=\"max-width:1000px;margin:0 auto;padding:80px 20px 90px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/tomorrowaccess.com\/en\/s-1-journal\/\" style=\"text-decoration:none;color:inherit;display:block;\"><\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align:left;margin-bottom:40px;\">\n<div style=\"width:100%;height:5px;background:#1a1a1a;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"margin-top:26px;font-family:'Hiragino Mincho ProN','Yu Mincho',YuMincho,serif;font-size:32px;font-weight:700;color:#1a1a1a;\">S-1 <span style=\"color:#daa241;\">Journal<\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"display:flex;align-items:center;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:14px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;margin-bottom:26px;word-break:normal;line-break:strict;overflow-wrap:break-word;\"><span style=\"font-size:11px;letter-spacing:0.18em;color:#1a1a1a;font-weight:700;\">S-1 JOURNAL WEEKLY<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11px;color:#ccc;\">|<\/span><span style=\"font-size:12px;letter-spacing:0.04em;color:#666;font-weight:400;\">The Standing Watch: US IPOs, checked against the S-1<\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"width:100%;height:1px;background:#daa241;\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/a><\/p>\n<h1 style=\"font-family:'Hiragino Mincho ProN','Yu Mincho',YuMincho,serif;font-size:clamp(26px,5vw,38px);font-weight:700;line-height:1.5;margin:0 0 14px;color:#1a1a1a;word-break:normal;line-break:strict;overflow-wrap:break-word;\">A prospectus said the budget ran &quot;through August 2026.&quot; In August 2026, that sentence changed.<\/h1>\n<p style=\"font-size:13px;color:#666;letter-spacing:0.04em;margin:0 0 44px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;\">August 24, 2026 | Prices as of the August 21 close<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size:18px;line-height:1.7;margin:0 0 1.6em;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;word-break:normal;line-break:strict;overflow-wrap:break-word;\">The first S-1 X-Energy filed, on March 20 this year, contains this sentence. It is about the budget under the company&#x27;s cost-sharing arrangement with the Department of Energy, the ARDP Agreement.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size:18px;line-height:1.7;margin:0 0 1.6em;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;word-break:normal;line-break:strict;overflow-wrap:break-word;\">&quot;We submit our budgets through an ongoing &#x27;budget period&#x27; basis tied to project milestones under the ARDP Agreement, and our current budget covers <b>a budget period that began in March of 2025 and extends through August 2026<\/b>.&quot; The same paragraph adds: &quot;Extensions beyond the current budget period are subject to DOE discretion and approval.&quot;<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size:18px;line-height:1.7;margin:0 0 1.6em;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;word-break:normal;line-break:strict;overflow-wrap:break-word;\">There is a deadline in there. August 2026. So what happened in that August?<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size:18px;line-height:1.7;margin:0 0 1.6em;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;word-break:normal;line-break:strict;overflow-wrap:break-word;\">On August 13, X-Energy filed its quarterly report as a public company (Form 10-Q). The same sentence is in it, almost unchanged. What changed is the end date.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size:18px;line-height:1.7;margin:0 0 1.6em;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;word-break:normal;line-break:strict;overflow-wrap:break-word;\">&quot;&#8230;our current budget covers a budget period that began in March 2025 and extends through <b>March 2027<\/b>.&quot;<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size:18px;line-height:1.7;margin:0 0 1.6em;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;word-break:normal;line-break:strict;overflow-wrap:break-word;\">The extension came through. The funding received under the ARDP Agreement has grown too. Against the approximately $438 million as of the end of 2025 that the prospectus reported, this 10-Q puts it at $546.7 million as of June 30, 2026. The same 10-Q reports that the U.S. Government accounted for 90.3% of total revenue and grant income for the quarter.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size:18px;line-height:1.7;margin:0 0 1.6em;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;word-break:normal;line-break:strict;overflow-wrap:break-word;\">What the share price did is beside the point here. We are not drawing a line between this rewritten sentence and the stock, and we do not have the material to draw one. There is only one thing to say. <b>Anyone who had read the prospectus knew, before the company was public, where to look in August 2026.<\/b><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"font-size:15px;font-weight:700;letter-spacing:0.12em;color:#daa241;border-top:1px solid #e6e6e6;padding-top:36px;margin:60px 0 18px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;\">The same thing at Cerebras<\/h2>\n<p style=\"font-size:18px;line-height:1.7;margin:0 0 1.6em;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;word-break:normal;line-break:strict;overflow-wrap:break-word;\">Its 10-Q, filed August 12.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size:18px;line-height:1.7;margin:0 0 1.6em;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;word-break:normal;line-break:strict;overflow-wrap:break-word;\">The S-1 set out several equity awards to the two co-founders. One of them was 5,700,000 units to the CEO and 3,300,000 to the CTO. For those to become theirs, three gates all have to open: continued service, the company going public, and market capitalization reaching $75 billion, $150 billion and $250 billion (measured on a trailing 90-trading-day average of each day&#x27;s closing price multiplied by that day&#x27;s outstanding Class A shares). The market-cap gate comes in three tranches, one third at each level. And at the time of the S-1, <b>what this compensation would cost as an expense had not been settled.<\/b> The company wrote: &quot;The Company is in the process of determining the grant-date fair value of these awards.&quot;<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size:18px;line-height:1.7;margin:0 0 1.6em;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;word-break:normal;line-break:strict;overflow-wrap:break-word;\">The number arrived in the previous quarter&#x27;s 10-Q, filed in June: $531.2 million. That is not what the two men receive. It is what the awards are worth on the books. And yet the expense recognized in that quarter was zero. Of the three gates, &quot;the company going public&quot; was not deemed probable as of the end of March.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size:18px;line-height:1.7;margin:0 0 1.6em;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;word-break:normal;line-break:strict;overflow-wrap:break-word;\">That the gate had opened was already in the June 10-Q: &quot;The performance-based vesting condition for the PRSUs was satisfied in connection with the IPO on May 13, 2026.&quot; What the August 12 10-Q added was the expense. The amount recognized in the quarter: $34.2 million, the first slice of the $531.2 million. Not one of the market capitalization thresholds has been reached. Vesting on these tranches cannot begin until six months after the offering is completed. Not one share from this award has reached either man&#x27;s hands. The expense started flowing anyway. <b>What moved was the accounting on this award.<\/b><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"font-size:15px;font-weight:700;letter-spacing:0.12em;color:#daa241;border-top:1px solid #e6e6e6;padding-top:36px;margin:60px 0 18px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;\">And last week, at Andersen<\/h2>\n<p style=\"font-size:18px;line-height:1.7;margin:0 0 1.6em;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;word-break:normal;line-break:strict;overflow-wrap:break-word;\">We published our piece on the company on August 22. One of the three numbers at the top of it was the estimated payments under the Tax Receivable Agreement, approximately $441.1 million over 15 years. It is a promise a company makes around the time of its IPO with the holding vehicle alongside it: when partner-side interests are exchanged for shares or bought out, the company&#x27;s own tax bill falls, and 85% of that saving is paid out in cash afterwards. The recipients are the parties to the agreement, on the current and former partner side.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size:18px;line-height:1.7;margin:0 0 1.6em;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;word-break:normal;line-break:strict;overflow-wrap:break-word;\">That approximately $441.1 million was the estimate in the prospectus filed on December 17, 2025. <b>On August 20, the same company filed a new prospectus.<\/b> It is for a secondary offering: partner-side interests converted into Class A common stock, then sold.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size:18px;line-height:1.7;margin:0 0 1.6em;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;word-break:normal;line-break:strict;overflow-wrap:break-word;\">In that same prospectus, the Tax Receivable Agreement estimate appears again. <b>Approximately $1,037.4 million over 15 years.<\/b> More than twice the figure of eight months earlier.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size:18px;line-height:1.7;margin:0 0 1.6em;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;word-break:normal;line-break:strict;overflow-wrap:break-word;\">Why the change? The prospectus states its own assumption. December: &quot;based on the initial public offering price of $16.00 per share.&quot; August: &quot;based on the closing price of our Class A common stock of $37.72 per share on June 30, 2026.&quot; The annual report filed in March, in between, used the December 31, 2025 closing price of $25.93 and gave approximately $694.9 million. Every one of them assumes that all units eligible to be redeemed are exchanged for Class A common stock, and that there is sufficient taxable income to use all of the tax attributes.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size:18px;line-height:1.7;margin:0 0 1.6em;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;word-break:normal;line-break:strict;overflow-wrap:break-word;\">So the approximately $441.1 million at the top of our piece was never a fixed amount. It has been recalculated on different assumed share prices. This is not a story about new debt being taken on.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"font-size:15px;font-weight:700;letter-spacing:0.12em;color:#daa241;border-top:1px solid #e6e6e6;padding-top:36px;margin:60px 0 18px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;\">What listing documents tell you<\/h2>\n<p style=\"font-size:18px;line-height:1.7;margin:0 0 1.6em;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;word-break:normal;line-break:strict;overflow-wrap:break-word;\">None of these three is about being right or wrong. In each case, a place the listing document named as the one to watch is a place that actually moved.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size:18px;line-height:1.7;margin:0 0 1.6em;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;word-break:normal;line-break:strict;overflow-wrap:break-word;\">A prospectus will not tell you what a share price will be. What it tells you is that <b>the sentences worth watching are few enough to count<\/b>, and that those sentences usually carry a date or an assumption. For X-Energy, &quot;August 2026.&quot; For Cerebras, &quot;six months following completion of this offering.&quot; For Andersen, &quot;based on the initial public offering price of $16.00 per share.&quot; Every one of them could have been written down at the time of reading.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"font-size:15px;font-weight:700;letter-spacing:0.12em;color:#daa241;border-top:1px solid #e6e6e6;padding-top:36px;margin:60px 0 18px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;\">The scoreboard<\/h2>\n<p style=\"font-size:18px;line-height:1.7;margin:0 0 1.6em;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;word-break:normal;line-break:strict;overflow-wrap:break-word;\">The table that asks &quot;if you had put $1,000 in at the closing price on the day it listed, what is it worth now&quot; is updated to the August 21 close.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size:18px;line-height:1.7;margin:0 0 1.6em;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;word-break:normal;line-break:strict;overflow-wrap:break-word;\">The last time we published this was August 10, on August 7 closing prices. The table has since grown: Andersen Group joined on August 22, bringing the recently listed group to ten. Lining those ten up back to August 7, the largest gain over the two weeks was Lime: $1,472 to $1,579, up about $107. Among the same ten, the largest decline was X-Energy: $776 to $639, down about $136.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size:18px;line-height:1.7;margin:0 0 1.6em;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;word-break:normal;line-break:strict;overflow-wrap:break-word;\">A company goes into the table once we have published our piece on it and it has listed. Every company&#x27;s performance is counted from the closing price on the day it listed. The table only says what something is worth now. It does not say why. The three cases above are the part it does not say.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"font-size:15px;font-weight:700;letter-spacing:0.12em;color:#daa241;border-top:1px solid #e6e6e6;padding-top:36px;margin:60px 0 18px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n<p style=\"font-size:18px;line-height:1.7;margin:0 0 1.6em;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;word-break:normal;line-break:strict;overflow-wrap:break-word;\">Among the companies we cover with a date on the calendar, the next to report is Snowflake. Per the company&#x27;s August 3 announcement, it reports its second quarter, ended July 31, after the close of U.S. markets on September 2. For the ones without a published date, we read the SEC&#x27;s filings by machine every morning for 8-Ks and 10-Qs. Whether we take something up depends on what is in it, but when we do, it goes up on the site the next morning.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size:18px;line-height:1.7;margin:0 0 1.6em;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,'Hiragino Kaku Gothic ProN','\u30d2\u30e9\u30ae\u30ce\u89d2\u30b4 ProN W3','Noto Sans JP','Yu Gothic',sans-serif;word-break:normal;line-break:strict;overflow-wrap:break-word;\">On the new-filing side, Holtec filed Amendment No. 1 to its Form S-1 registration statement, dated August 21. Because it was accepted after the 17:30 ET cutoff, the filing date on EDGAR is the next business day, August 24. The price range is still blank. 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