If you had invested
$1,000 on IPO day
Assume you bought $1,000 at the first-day closing price of each company S-1 Journal has decoded. Assume you put $1,000 into the S&P 500 that same day — then let the market keep score. Not a forecast. A reckoning.
Snapshot as of 2026-10-27 13:14 UTC · Prices adjusted for splits & dividends · S&P 500 = total return index (dividends included)
Opening-day heat tells you almost nothing about the long-run answer. So this page records both, on the same yardstick — the S&P 500 and $1,000.
| Group | Invested | Now | S&P 500 | Beats S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024–26 Recent listings · 11 cos | $11,000 | $9,849 | $11,684 | 3 / 11 |
| Earlier 2023 & earlier · 6 cos | $6,000 | $395,464 | $34,849 | 4 / 6 |
| Total 17 cos | $17,000 | $405,313 | $46,533 | 7 / 17 |
Of the $405,313 total, about 92% is carried by just two names — Tesla and Google (Alphabet). Even with a few outsized winners, only 7 of 17 names beat the S&P 500 — and it all sits on the same table.
2026
9 listed in 2026. Still early — the verdict is not yet set.
| Company | IPO date | Trend | $1,000 → now | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Age | Off peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freenome | 2026-07-20 | $1,064 | $1,034 | Ahead | ~3 mo | -26% | |
| ReformationAnswer check | 2026-07-30 | $1,051 | $1,035 | Ahead | ~3 mo | -6% | |
| SpaceXAnswer check | 2026-06-12 | $913 | $1,037 | Behind | ~5 mo | -30% | |
| LimeAnswer check | 2026-07-01 | $898 | $1,029 | Behind | ~4 mo | -46% | |
| Jersey Mike’sAnswer check · Answer check · Answer check | 2026-07-30 | $782 | $1,035 | Behind | ~3 mo | -31% | |
| Apnimed | 2026-07-31 | $758 | $1,028 | Behind | ~3 mo | -42% | |
| Braveheart Bio | 2026-08-06 | $734 | $998 | Behind | ~3 mo | -27% | |
| X-Energy | 2026-04-24 | $366 | $1,077 | Behind | ~6 mo | -70% | |
| Cerebras SystemsAnswer check | 2026-05-14 | $348 | $1,029 | Behind | ~6 mo | -65% |
2025
2 listed in 2025. Still early — the verdict is not yet set.
| Company | IPO date | Trend | $1,000 → now | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Age | Off peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andersen Group | 2025-12-17 | $2,731 | $1,153 | Ahead | ~10 mo | +0% | |
| FigmaAnswer check | 2025-07-31 | $204 | $1,229 | Behind | Yr 1 | -81% |
Of the 11 recent listings, 8 trade below their first-day close. But that is not the final result. Across 965 U.S. IPOs from 2020–2025 that we tested, about 10% of those down a year after listing had since climbed back above water. AppLovin, for one, was about 20% underwater a year in — and is now up roughly 7×. So this page leans neither pessimistic nor optimistic; it keeps recording until the verdict day.
Earlier
6 companies listed in 2023 or earlier. The more time passes since listing, the more the market’s answer sets.
| Company | IPO date | Trend | $1,000 → now | Multiple | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla | 2010-06-29 | $245,889 | 246× | $9,943 | Ahead | |
| Google (Alphabet) | 2004-08-19 | $126,910 | 127× | $10,700 | Ahead | |
| Meta (Facebook) | 2012-05-18 | $16,652 | 17× | $7,683 | Ahead | |
| Arm | 2023-09-14 | $3,512 | 4× | $1,774 | Ahead | |
| Snowflake | 2020-09-16 | $1,319 | 1× | $2,474 | Behind | |
| Airbnb | 2020-12-10 | $1,182 | 1× | $2,275 | Behind |
Even among these, only 4 of 6 beat the S&P 500. Blowout winners and companies still short of the market average years on both come from the same “marquee IPO.”
The winners’ S-1s
Reading the winners’ S-1s after the fact. From a full census of U.S. IPOs, 2020–2025.
This pattern is not just about S-1 Journal’s ten. Of the roughly 2,400 companies that listed in the U.S. from 2020–2025, we computed the “what happened next” for all 965 whose prices we could verify. The ones that rose were, clearly, the exception.
But every figure above is a high they merely touched. Of the 54 that touched 5×, nearly half (26) fell back to roughly where they started — only 22 held on as the real thing.
For example, AMTD Digital leapt as high as 44× after listing but now trades below its debut, while Sezzle climbed 82× and still holds about 78×. The same “surge,” a completely different destination.
The same “10×” can mean a fleeting spike or real growth — entirely different things. Was that difference visible somewhere in the S-1 at listing? We read the winners’ S-1s through exactly that lens.
Future dates, written in the S-1
The one thing on this page that hasn’t happened yet — though the dates were fixed before the IPO.
The chief example is the “lock-up expiry.” For a stretch after listing (often 180 days), executives and major holders cannot sell. When that window opens, the supply of sellable shares jumps at once. With more supply, prices have historically tended to fall around the expiry — though not always. That “next day supply and demand shift” is already written in the pre-IPO S-1.
The other is the one-year verdict day. On that day, the record against the S&P 500 is carved into this table for good.
Note: dates are approximate, computed mechanically from the listing date. Exact start dates and early-release terms follow each prospectus. This does not predict price movements.
On deck
The answer isn’t in yet. But the S-1 already is. The day they list, they join this table.
Method & disclaimer
All purchases are assumed at each company’s first-day closing price (individuals can rarely buy at the offering price). Prices are adjusted for splits and dividends. The S&P 500 side uses the total return index (dividends included). Figures are as of the snapshot date shown above. Trading fees and taxes are not considered. This page is for record-keeping and verification, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S-1 JOURNAL NEWSLETTER
Event-driven S-1 breakdowns and new deep dives, delivered free by email. Subscriber bonus: the Ten Questions checklist (PDF). No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
By subscribing you agree to receive emails from S-1 Journal.